Bitcoin in a 60/40

Five percent of the money. How much of the risk?

3 holdings, and the risk occupies about 1.9 independent directions. BTC-USD is 5% of the money and 13% of the risk.

Where the risk sits

Holding	Money	Risk	Ratio
VOO	57%	82%	1.43
BTC-USD	5%	13%	2.65
BND	38%	5%	0.14

The reading, in full

PORTFOLIO: Bitcoin in a 60/40
2014-09-17 to 2026-09-04 · 3,009 trading days · USD

3 holdings, but the risk sits in about 1.9 independent directions.
75% is one shared direction, led by VOO, BTC-USD, BND.

BTC-USD: 5% of the money, 13% of the risk.
Volatility 12% · worst fall on record 23%.
Risk 12% → 9% over the last year, mostly because the holdings themselves got quieter.

Descriptive. No forecast, no advice. Every figure above is measured over the window named at the top.
riskcopilot.app

What this does not say

Describes how many independent directions the risk occupies. It is not a forecast of loss and does not predict a drawdown.
This is commonality, not a fault. A diversified equity book is MORE driven by one shared direction than a single stock is, because diversifying is what removes the idiosyncratic part.
Past window only. Says nothing about the next one.
The worst fall *in this window*. A longer window would very likely contain a worse one.
Loading signs are fixed so the largest is positive; a negative loading means that holding moves against the others.
The ratio is the finding. A weight alone cannot say whether a position is large, because that depends on everything else held.
Today's weights are held fixed across both stretches. This is what the MARKET did to the book you hold now — not a history of the book, which this app does not store. Reading it as 'my trades caused this' would be exactly backwards.
The window ends at the youngest holding: one recently listed position shortens the history for all of them.

Your own portfolio

Same engine, same window rules, nothing saved on our side.

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Other examples

NVDA on top of VOO and QQQ Three overlapping ETFs The 60/40 portfolio A tidy-looking dividend book

Measured 2014-09-17 to 2026-09-04 over 3,009 trading days, in USD, from yahoo prices. Descriptive: this page reports what these holdings have done and how their risk is built. It does not forecast returns or losses and it is not advice. This project has tested and abandoned 27 predictive hypotheses.